MANIFEST DESTINY
Source: Eugenio Benetazzo
Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain are now becoming the leitmotif of the reflections international financial community, as if the only concern on which we should dwell was holding short of the public finances of these countries. The what to choose and where to stand at the level of investment has been amply dealt with by me on several occasions and media contexts, however, the question we should ask where the prince at this moment is not whether this is a government bond default risk, but rather what will not. I will try to convey my thoughts in a more understandable way possible.
Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain are now becoming the leitmotif of the reflections international financial community, as if the only concern on which we should dwell was holding short of the public finances of these countries. The what to choose and where to stand at the level of investment has been amply dealt with by me on several occasions and media contexts, however, the question we should ask where the prince at this moment is not whether this is a government bond default risk, but rather what will not. I will try to convey my thoughts in a more understandable way possible.
The crisis of sovereign debt crisis in Europe is structural (and economic) due to macroeconomic phenomena that have delivered their full potential detonating through a model of turbocharged economic growth with low interest rates and low costs of labor that bears the name of globalization. This comes not from the natural evolution of classical capitalism, but rather is a solution designed to coffee powerful lobby supranational interest to resolve the distressing decline in profits and corporate profits in the U.S. and Europe, causes a progressive and inexorable process of aging population combined with a decadent birth households.
The big corporations will constantly up against both the turnovers that the levels of profit as nearly all Western markets are mature, saturated or in decline (think of the car market, are not random recent expressions of Sergio Marchionne). In fifteen years, the elderly, those over sixty, represent an increasingly large proportion of western populations (in Italy are estimated at almost 40%). An elderly person, unfortunately, is not the perfect plate of the consumer, in fact marginally contributes little to the level of consumption than a thirty year old (in fact it is just the beginning of his life plan: you must marry, have to buy a 'house, having children, buying a car, Divertis leisure, go on holidays, clothes and so on).
While it will decrease the level of consumption, on the other hand will increase the weight of the distressing social welfare (shelter, hospital stays, medical care and retirement pensions) by going to weigh more and more as a percentage of each years of total wealth. Basically we are talking about countries (USA, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain & Company) whose fate is pretty well defined : inexorable aging of the population, increasing public debt, slow and brutal industrialization impoverishment. I do not know what will actually serve the so-called austerity social programs, less than dramatic and drastic cuts in social spending and public administration. Who designed the globalization has thought of this or how to protect corporate profit levels (and perhaps even raise them as) against an epochal change in the geography of world consumption .
In Asia, led by China and India, 75% of the population under the age of thirty and a per capita income on the rise: it was therefore set the scene and how to increase the number of people in these areas could begin to consume at levels similar to those in the West. Thanks to the WTO has failed to implement a transfer phenomenal job through the "appropriateness" of relocation of production, literally moving plants and factories, which would allow time to be born with a new bourgeois middle class willing to spend for fashions and trends of consumption of the new millennium. One need not be economists to realize the above: in 2000, Asia contributed to only 10% of world consumption in 2030 will account for almost 40%. As growth potential, to eastern markets are alongside the markets of Latin America with Brazil in the lead locomotive.
In Asia, led by China and India, 75% of the population under the age of thirty and a per capita income on the rise: it was therefore set the scene and how to increase the number of people in these areas could begin to consume at levels similar to those in the West. Thanks to the WTO has failed to implement a transfer phenomenal job through the "appropriateness" of relocation of production, literally moving plants and factories, which would allow time to be born with a new bourgeois middle class willing to spend for fashions and trends of consumption of the new millennium. One need not be economists to realize the above: in 2000, Asia contributed to only 10% of world consumption in 2030 will account for almost 40%. As growth potential, to eastern markets are alongside the markets of Latin America with Brazil in the lead locomotive.
So we are witnessing an epochal change: the world's geopolitical and economic center of gravity is shifting eastward, and also to the South. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is altogether inconsistent with the scope of problems that emerge in the next five years in the face of objective difficulties food supply, especially in the East has much arable land unable to meet the growing demand for both cereals (unfortunately) of meat from livestock. Twenty years between the current economic model should be capable of providing housing, automobiles, fuel, food and water at least 600 million new people: therefore started to wonder who will still afford to have a fridge full of stalls or supermarkets filled and supplied to satisfy the wicked and unbridled consumerism of the new millennium. Manifest destiny to put it to Stewie Griffin.
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